{"id":349,"date":"2017-10-12T22:57:59","date_gmt":"2017-10-12T22:57:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/evbettor.com\/?p=349"},"modified":"2017-10-12T22:57:59","modified_gmt":"2017-10-12T22:57:59","slug":"week-6-and-success-in-the-nfl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/evbettor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/12\/week-6-and-success-in-the-nfl\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 6 and Success in the NFL"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
EVBettor Perfomance<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Week<\/td>\nWins<\/td>\nLoss<\/td>\nPush<\/td>\nATS<\/td>\nPerformance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n67%<\/td>\n2.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n53%<\/td>\n(2.2%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n75%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n39%<\/td>\n(3.6%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n40%<\/td>\n(3.2%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017 Season<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n53%<\/td>\n(0.2%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016 Season<\/td>\n164<\/td>\n121<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n58%<\/td>\n41.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Notes<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Stylistically, success rate is to the NFL as batting average is to the MLB.\u00a0 Although, in practice, success rate operates more like FIP<\/a>, a stat that is useful in isolating signal from noise.\u00a0 \u00a0 Just as infield hits are tougher to predict, in football, turnovers (fumbles, and to a lesser extent interceptions) are largely filled with randomness, as are big plays or short fields acquired from defense or special teams.\u00a0 Success rate is a stat that simply counts those plays as successful or not (Whether a 70-yard TD or a 1-yard first down).\u00a0 This helps to isolate which teams have over or underperformed their execution ability.\u00a0 Looking at a 4,500+ game sample, if you simply pick the team that wins the success rate battle you would be 59.8% ATS.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Below is a chart of average points scored vs a team’s success rate through week\u00a05 this year.\u00a0 Team’s above the red line have overperformed their offensive success rate, while teams below have underperformed, for whatever reasons.\u00a0 Investigate the outliers to see if it is warranted or not.\u00a0 On the positive variance\u00a0side you have KC, lucky or good?\u00a0 Miami, terrible or unlucky?\u00a0 Let me know your thoughts.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Thursday Plays (NOT Investment Advice) :<\/p>\n

Sides<\/span><\/p>\n

Big<\/p>\n