How to quickly analyze Prop Bets

By | October 26, 2017

Whenever people are starting to take investing in sports seriously, they will often ask “where can I find the most value is in the sportsbook?”.  My answer is generally “look at the prop bets”.  There will be hundreds of props per weekend, ranging from sacks per game to most penalty yards.  There is a breadth of props to bet on, thus linemakers can not spend the depth of time to put out good lines on every prop.  Props also are generally on a single player or aspect of the game, reducing the factors one needs to look at to determine what the correct line should be (although you can make it as complicated as you want).

Props are also much less followed, thus if you are able to quickly analyze a prop bet, then you will be able to find plenty of value bets on any game you want.    The books know this, so there are lower limits, higher vigs, and later post times on prop bets.   However, this should not preclude bettors from analyzing props, as looking at a single player or single event within the game can distill where there is value to experienced bettors and what value is to novice ones.  Getting multiple books can help alleviate the low betting limits, but as of now, this will exclude players with large bankrolls.

Prop Bet Pro, was designed to help bettors in their analysis of prop bets.  Giving out the information to help you make your decision on the props you analyze.  It is free to use, simply e-mail george[at]evbettor.com and a login will be sent.

Below are a couple sample props and information that you would be able to uncover with Prop Bet Pro. (*Note server time may be slow to load, but it will load and work more quickly once loaded. Thanks for your patience)

Joe Flacco vs. Miami Defense- O/U 21.5 Completions

Using games with Totals set below 45, from this season and last, Flacco has thrown for over 21.5 completions 77% of the time, while Miami defense has given up more than 21.5 completions 47% of the time.

Games Filter:
Total set Under 45
Seasons: 2016-17
Site: Home and Away

 

See how a player is trending, Flacco is throwing less completions than the previous couple years, and more in-line with 2012-2014 seasons.

 

Shows the yearly trend of Joe Flacco Completions since 2012

 

Jarvis Landry vs. Baltimore Defense Longest Reception:  O/U 18 Yards

How many chances will Jarvis have to catch the ball?

Jarvis has seen an uptick in targets, ranging from 10-15 targets per game

A simulation (1,000 times) to determine how many times Jarvis goes over that total of 18 Yards, assuming 12 Targets

 

Jarvis Landry and Baltimore D (vs. WRs), assuming 12 targets

 

This is a tool to help prop bettors quickly look at information in an easy to understand format.  It will NOT give you the answers, but information to help inform decisions.

 

Note: A poison regression analysis will be added shortly along with other factors that help determine sharper lines for these props.  Other props analysis will be added in later versions.  If there are any bets you would like to see a tool for, leave a comment.


Week 8 Plays

Totals:

Small

  • OVER BAL/MIA (37)

 

 

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