How to quickly analyze Prop Bets

Whenever people are starting to take investing in sports seriously, they will often ask “where can I find the most value is in the sportsbook?”.  My answer is generally “look at the prop bets”.  There will be hundreds of props per weekend, ranging from sacks per game to most penalty yards.  There is a breadth of props… Read More »

Week 6 and Success in the NFL

EVBettor Perfomance Week Wins Loss Push ATS Performance 1 6 3 0 67% 2.7% 2 8 7 0 53% (2.2%) 3 12 4 0 75% 6.1% 4 7 11 0 39% (3.6%) 5 6 9 0 40% (3.2%) 2017 Season 39 34 0 53% (0.2%) 2016 Season 164 121 4 58% 41.3%   Market Notes… Read More »

Week 5 Notes and NFL Market Rankings

EVBettor Perfomance Week Wins Loss Push ATS Performance 1 6 3 0 67% 2.7% 2 8 7 0 53% (2.2%) 3 12 4 0 75% 6.1% 4 7 11 0 39% (3.6%) 2017 Season 33 25 0 57% 3.0% 2016 Season 164 121 4 58% 41.3%   Market Notes Week 4 saw favorites go 7-9… Read More »

Do Good Bettors Suffer More Bad Beats?

“Bad beats” are those gut-punch (betting) losses, where the game seems to be all wrapped up…then a garbage touchdown, missed chip shot, dumb coaching or some other low-probability event (or combination of events) causes victory to flee from a once seemingly crocodile-like grip. To anyone wagering long enough, you will have your stories, as they ALWAYS happen… Read More »

Note on Week 4 and Ask EV

EVBettor NFL Perfomance Week Wins Loss Push ATS Performance 1 6 3 0 67% 2.7% 2 8 7 0 53% (2.2%) 3 12 4 0 75% 6.1% 2017 Season 26 14 0 65% 6.6% 2016 Season 164 121 4 58% 41.3%   Plays were published through e-mail.  If you would like to be notified in… Read More »

Week 3

 EVBettor Week Wins Loss ATS Performance 1 6 3 67% 2.7% 2 8 7 53% (2.2%) Season 14 10 58% 0.5%   Market Notes: Another week where defenses dominated (or offenses were just terrible) as UNDERs went 10-5-1 and are now 20-9-2 (69%) to start the year.  Last week’s totals also closed on average 1.5… Read More »

Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 Record:  6-3 or +2.7% (5-3 Full Game Sides and 1-0 2H Play). 2016 Record: 66–26 ATS (72%) on 1-unit sides and 164–121–4 (57.5%) on all plays, different model used..but markets evolve. Team Notes: The Jags defensive unit was very real last season and the numbers like them this week. The perception on the Browns continues to… Read More »