Note on Week 4 and Ask EV

Plays were published through e-mail.  If you would like to be notified in the future, sign up below.

Ask EV (Questions I receive, if you would like to ask one,  tweet or e-mail me).

Q: Why do you have so many NFL plays every week, does that mean you are unsure of your bets?

Not about confidence in singular bets as it is confidence in a method, as the more someone bets, the more their true skill will be revealed.  Plays are chosen through a systematic approach, the analysis of games is scalable vs. a linear approach of watching game tape or hunting for rumours.  I would much rather play numerous (vs a few) non-correlated events with a positive expected edge, as a more probable way to secure a profit.  If there is a positive expected value on a play, I size my bet accordingly (the bet sizes posted are NOT  how I manage my actual position sizes, though they are directionally correct).

The more plays you can make with a positive expected value, the more likely you will be to win over time (larger sample sizes reduces ‘luck’).  It is similar to if you were going to get in a 3-point shooting contest with Steph Curry.  As an amateur, your best shot at beating Steph is in a 1-shot contest, but the more shots you take the more of an edge Steph will get and the more likely the Pro wins the contest.  Similarly, for my methods, the more plays made, the more likely my NFL model will show a profit long-term vs. the sportsbook, IF there is a true edge.

Market Notes

Caught Gill Alexander’s VSIN’s Guessing the Line show yesterday and heard a comment from a bookmaker about how dogs have not been this big for books in a while (ever?).  Dogs were 12-4 (75% ATS) last week, while 8 dogs won straight up.  A great week for the canines, but you only have to go back to last season week 10 to find a more dog-friendly week, as dog’s went 12-2 (86% ATS), with 11 dogs winning outright.  Since 2000, the best dog week ever was 2001 Week 6, when dogs went 12-1, with 11 winning outright.  For the season dogs have been a profitable 55% ATS.

Totals reversed and went 10-5-1 to the OVER, after posting the same record to the UNDER the week prior.